Economists suggest that while AI-driven productivity gains could temporarily ease fiscal pressures in high-debt economies, they are unlikely to resolve underlying fiscal challenges. OECD economist Filiz Unsal indicated that AI could reduce projected debt levels by 10 percentage points in countries like the U.S., Germany, and Japan by 2036, yet these levels would remain significantly higher than current figures.
Experts, including Idanna Appio and Kevin Khang, emphasize that the core issue lies in aging populations and related welfare costs, which require fiscal reforms beyond productivity improvements. Concerns also arise over potential job losses and concentrated economic gains, which could impact government revenues and expenditures. Barclays warns that a recession before AI-driven growth could exacerbate fiscal anxieties.
AI Productivity Gains May Offer Temporary Relief, Not Solve Fiscal Crises
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