Citic Securities anticipates a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the latter half of 2026. This forecast follows the release of April's U.S. non-farm payroll data, which surpassed expectations, while the unemployment rate aligned with forecasts at 4.3%. The firm attributes the improved labor market assessment to fewer one-time factors and increased corporate response rates. The research report suggests that easing tensions in Iran and falling oil prices could help temper inflation expectations, supporting the case for a rate cut. Citic Securities views these developments as pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in the coming months.