Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as the dominant players in the prediction market, collectively holding 97.5% of the market share in 2025. The global forecast market is projected to reach a trading volume of approximately $50.25 billion this year, with Kalshi and Polymarket leading the charge. Kalshi reported a notional trading volume of $23.8 billion, driven by its compliance-focused strategy that attracts institutional capital. Meanwhile, Polymarket achieved a trading volume of $22 billion, leveraging its crypto-native, permissionless model to maintain high event coverage and liquidity.
The prediction market industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with regulatory clarity and increased institutional interest driving growth. In 2024, multiple U.S. states and the CFTC adopted clearer regulatory stances, paving the way for traditional institutional funds to enter the market. This shift has redefined prediction markets as tools for generating alpha, rather than mere gambling platforms. As a result, prediction markets are evolving into a hybrid of financial exchanges and information production mechanisms, with Kalshi and Polymarket at the forefront of this evolution.
Kalshi and Polymarket Dominate 97.5% of Prediction Market in 2025
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