A recent analysis by on-chain researcher Andrey Sergeenkov reveals that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are unprofitable, with only 2% of addresses achieving profits over $1,000. Notably, just 840 addresses, or 0.033%, have earned more than $100,000. This report, based on data from 2.5 million wallet addresses, highlights the stark wealth disparity in on-chain prediction markets.
The study also shows that less than 0.26% of traders earn over $5,000 monthly, and among these, 53% cease trading after a month. The findings underscore the dominance of automated trading strategies, such as arbitrage bots, which capture significant profits, leaving manual retail traders at a disadvantage. Despite Polymarket's growth, with a $9.8 billion trading volume in the past 30 days, the platform's profitability remains skewed, raising questions about its sustainability and the role of prediction markets.
84% of Polymarket Traders Face Losses; Profits Concentrated Among Few
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