BloFin Academy's 2026 macroeconomic forecast highlights that the Federal Reserve's defensive rate cuts in 2025 did not lead to a liquidity surge. Instead, growth in margin credit and large-scale T-bill issuance drained bank reserves, with the EFFR and SOFR-IORB spread indicating deteriorating liquidity quality. Investment strategies are shifting towards strict diversification, with capital flowing into gold, non-U.S. currencies, and supply-constrained assets.
Key themes for 2026 include resources (supply-side), AI infrastructure (computing power/energy), and national defense. In the crypto sector, assets are diverging, with Bitcoin acting as a digital commodity hedge, while equity-like tokens require higher risk compensation. The global pricing logic is transitioning from globalization's "buy growth" to regionalization's "buy location."
2026 Macro Outlook: Liquidity, Expectations, and New Order
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