The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is characterized by significant policy risks and early signs of credit stress, according to a recent analysis. Key factors contributing to this volatility include Federal Reserve tightening during an economic slowdown, AI and tech firms increasingly relying on debt for growth, and diverging private credit valuations. Additionally, the analysis points to deepening economic divides and market concentration as systemic vulnerabilities. The report warns of potential policy missteps and political instability, alongside a diminishing role for Bitcoin as a macroeconomic hedge. It anticipates a period of controlled tightening through 2025, with a subsequent liquidity rebound in 2026, influenced by political cycles.