10x Research emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's policy guidance, rather than the rate cut itself, is the critical factor influencing Bitcoin and broader market dynamics. Despite an 84% probability of a December rate cut, historical patterns suggest that the accompanying policy statement holds more significance. A rarely triggered dollar indicator has recently flashed, marking only the fifth occurrence in Bitcoin's history, with mixed past outcomes. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is expected to release over $60 billion in liquidity, yet Bitcoin's previous response to similar events was delayed and negative. While Treasury futures indicate an 84% likelihood of a December rate cut and a 65% chance of no change in January, the market's focus remains on the Fed's forward guidance. This is particularly crucial as the potential December cut would be the third in a row, potentially diminishing its positive impact on risk assets without a dovish policy stance.