Prediction Market User Guide

1.What is the Prediction Market?

A prediction market is a market where users trade on the outcome of future events — such as whether BTC will reach a certain price, whether an ETF will be approved, or who will win a major sports event.

YES shares and NO shares represent opposite views on an event outcome. Share prices reflect real-time market probability and move continuously based on buying and selling activity.

2.How do I get started?

Step 1: Log in to your Phemex account

Step 2: Transfer USDT to your spot account

Prediction market trading requires USDT in your spot account. Transfer funds from your main or other accounts before placing an order.

Step 3: Enter Prediction Market and Select an Event

Browse available markets from the homepage or market list. Before trading, review the event title, YES / NO prices, market end time, and resolution criteria.

Step 4: Buy YES or NO shares based on your view

Buy YES shares if you think the event will occur; buy NO shares if you think it will not. Enter your amount, review the order details, and confirm.

Step 5: Hold or exit early

Hold your position through settlement once the event outcome is confirmed, or sell your shares at the current market price before the event resolves if early exit is available.

3.How do I read a market page?

Each market page shows the following key fields:

Event title — the question the market is asking (e.g. "Will BTC be above $100,000 on June 30?")
YES / NO price — the current market price for each outcome. A higher YES price means the market leans toward the event happening. Prices reflect market expectation, not guaranteed outcomes.
Market end time — when trading stops and the market enters the resolution phase.
Rules — defines what outcome triggers YES or NO, which public sources are used, and how disputed cases are handled. Always read this before trading.
Volume / liquidity — higher volume means more participants and tighter spreads. Low-liquidity markets may have more slippage or slower fills.

Prices can change sharply due to new information, large orders, or low liquidity — especially near the resolution date. Slippage (the difference between expected and actual execution price) is more likely in fast-moving or illiquid markets. To reduce slippage, avoid large orders during sharp moves and prefer markets with stronger liquidity.

4.How does settlement work?

Once the event outcome is confirmed, the market moves into settlement.

If the event resolves in your favor, your YES or NO positions settle according to the market's published rules.
If the event resolves against your view, positions may lose value per the market's published settlement rules.
If the market is still awaiting resolution, it may show status: Pending, Resolving, Under Review, or Finalized. Asset availability may differ across these states.

Outcomes are determined by the published resolution criteria and designated public sources — not by Phemex or any single user. Settlement may not happen immediately after the market end time, as some events require official confirmation or published data. Please note that as a market approaches settlement, trading may be restricted or unavailable due to liquidity constraints. If you have concerns about a specific outcome, any disputes are handled under Polymarket's resolution process.

Fees may include trading fees and implicit costs from bid-ask spreads. Review the fee information shown on the confirmation screen before placing an order.

5.Why wasn't my order filled, or why can't I trade a market?

After buying, you can view your position, add to it, sell before settlement, or hold to final settlement. Your actual profit or loss depends on whether your side is correct, the change between your entry and exit price, and market liquidity.

Orders may not fill immediately due to:

Rapidly moving prices or insufficient liquidity
Your order price not matching currently tradable prices
The market being in a paused, resolving, or non-tradable state
Short delays in network or API synchronization

If your order is unfilled, try refreshing the page, adjusting your price or amount, or checking the market status. Some markets may be unavailable because they are closed, ended, fully settled, paused, or restricted by region or account eligibility.

6.What are the risks?

Prediction markets do not guarantee profits. Key risks include:

Outcome risk — your view on the event may be wrong.
Rule interpretation risk — misreading the resolution criteria may lead to unexpected settlement results.
Volatility risk — prices can move sharply in a short period, especially near the resolution date or during breaking news.
Liquidity risk — limited market depth can lead to difficult fills, price deviation, or higher exit costs.
Timing risk — there may be a delay between external events, news releases, and API data updates.
Technical risk — including network interruptions, API delays, or temporary unavailability of third-party data.

Only use funds you can afford to lose. If you are new to prediction markets: start with topics you already understand, read the resolution criteria before every trade, prefer markets with stronger liquidity, and start with a small amount.