September rate-hike odds on Polymarket have held at 36% for two straight days, steady since Friday's payrolls report showed the economy shedding 23,000 jobs instead of adding them. That stability now rests on Wednesday's July Consumer Price Index report, due August 12 at 8:30am ET, where economists expect headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-over-year from June's 3.5%. Core CPI, the inflation gauge that strips out volatile food and energy prices to isolate the underlying trend the Federal Reserve actually targets, carries a wider split this time, with forecasts clustering between 2.4% and 2.5% depending on the provider. Wednesday's report needs to avoid confirming the reacceleration one forecaster has already flagged, and that bar looks different from simply printing a cooler headline number.
Wednesday determines if the current repricing holds through a five-week Senate recess or reverses before traders get a confirming data point.
The Setup Wednesday's Print Walks Into
July's payrolls report, released Friday, August 7, showed the economy losing 23,000 jobs instead of adding the roughly 100,000 economists had penciled in. That single release moved Fed pricing more than anything else in weeks, and it collapsed the odds of a September rate hike in a matter of days.
Polymarket's rate-hike contract fell from 56.5% on August 3 to 49% on August 5, then 45% on August 6, before settling at 36% on both August 9 and August 10. Futures-implied pricing, tracked here through second-hand coverage rather than a direct exchange pull, shows a similar move to roughly 32%. The two instruments have converged to within about four points of each other, and both held flat over the weekend instead of drifting further in either direction.
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**Date
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Polymarket September Hike Probability**
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Aug 3
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56.5%
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Aug 5
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49%
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Aug 6
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45%
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Aug 9
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36%
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Aug 10
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36%
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That stability is the real story heading into Wednesday. A number that whipsaws for a day and reverses tells you little on its own. Two independent instruments agreeing within a few points, and holding there through a weekend with no fresh catalyst, tells you the market has settled on a view. Bitcoin has a documented pattern of selling off around hawkish Fed repricing, which is part of why traders are watching how Fed dot-plot shifts have historically moved Bitcoin so closely this week.
Fed funds sit at 3.50-3.75% under chair Kevin Warsh, and a 25 basis-point hike would be the first increase of this cycle rather than a pause in cuts. A weakening labor market is one of the clearest signals that argues against tightening, and traders priced that logic in within 48 hours of the payrolls release.
What Wednesday's CPI Needs to Show
Wednesday's report has not happened yet, and every figure below is a forecast, not a result. Economists expect headline CPI to land at 3.4% year-over-year, easing from June's 3.5%. That headline consensus is the one place where the available sources agree.
Core CPI is a different story. TD Securities published a note on August 6, via FXStreet, forecasting core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. An earlier reading in prior tracking put the figure at 2.5%. Rather than treat either as settled, the accurate framing is a range clustering around 2.4% to 2.5%, with both providers named rather than averaged into a single false-precision figure.
TD's forecast comes with more detail than most. The firm expects headline CPI to rise 0.15% month-over-month and core to rise 0.20% month-over-month, and it frames the move explicitly as a rebound off June's unusually soft print rather than a continuation of the disinflation trend. That framing changes what an "in line" print actually means this month. A report matching TD's rebound call would still show inflation reaccelerating off a very low base, even while landing on the same 3.4% headline figure consensus has already locked in.
The June Base This Comparison Rests On
Every forecast for Wednesday is being measured against June's actual report, released July 14 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so the base matters as much as the forecast itself.
June's headline CPI came in at 3.5% year-over-year, down from May's 4.2%, a large one-month move. Core CPI printed at 2.6% year-over-year. On a month-over-month basis, core was flat at 0%, missing the 0.2% consensus economists had expected, while headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the biggest single-month drop since April 2020.
That combination, a flat core reading paired with a sharply negative headline move, is what TD Securities is calling a rebound setup for July. A month that soft rarely repeats immediately, and TD's forecast for a 0.20% core gain reads less like continued disinflation and more like a reversion toward trend. One unattributed figure circulating elsewhere, a "2.8% from 2.7%" year-over-year print, does not reconcile with the confirmed 3.5% June base and should not be treated as real by anyone tracking this release.
Three Ways Wednesday Could Go
None of this has happened yet, and the responsible position going into Wednesday is a range of outcomes rather than a single expected path. The table below lays out what an in-line, hot, or cold print would likely do to the September conversation.
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**Scenario
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What The Print Shows
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Likely Effect On September Odds
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Likely First BTC Reaction**
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In line
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Headline near 3.4%, core in the 2.4%-2.5% range
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Odds probably hold close to 36%
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Muted, no fresh repricing catalyst
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Hot
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Headline above 3.4% or core above 2.5%, matching TD's rebound call
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Odds likely climb back toward the mid-40s
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Downside pressure as hike risk re-enters pricing
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Cold
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Headline below 3.4% or core below 2.4%
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Odds likely fall further toward the low 30s or lower
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Relief bid, similar to the move that followed Friday's payrolls
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PPI follows on Thursday, August 13, though no clean consensus figure has surfaced yet for that release. Retail Sales and the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading round out the week on Friday, August 14. Together, the three releases give the Fed a fuller picture ahead of its next meeting than any single CPI print could provide on its own.
The Senate's Five-Week Blackout on CLARITY
The Senate began a five-week recess today, August 10, and will not return until Monday, September 14. The first scheduled test for the CLARITY Act's path forward is a cloture vote set for Tuesday, September 15, at 2:15pm ET, more than five weeks from now.
Polymarket's odds on CLARITY passing in 2026 sit at 21% Yes and 79% No, a direct pull from August 10 that has not moved. What that number does not capture is the list of provisions still open when the chamber left town. Ethics and divestiture language, stablecoin reward structures, and illicit-finance protections all remain unresolved, and none of them get negotiated while the Senate is out of session.
The practical effect is a five-week gap where no floor action can move the bill in either direction, regardless of what CPI, PPI, or any other data release shows in the meantime. Markets pricing crypto legislation risk are effectively frozen at the same starting line until mid-September.
Friday's Record Close and Where Bitcoin Sits Now
Friday, August 7, was the last completed US trading session, and it closed at records across the board. The S&P 500closed at 7,757.64, up 0.62% on the day and a fresh record. The Nasdaq added 1.3% to close at 26,690.62, and the Dow gained 0.28% to 54,036.93. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.65% and the 30-year at 5.19%.
Bitcoin traded at $65,016 as of 03:07 UTC this morning, up 0.38% on the day, based on a live pull that lands close to prior Asia-session prints in the mid-$65,000s. That figure is an intraday level, not a verified daily close, and no source has confirmed a clean UTC close above $65,000 through the weekend. Today's separate Bitcoin price analysis breaks down that line in full. For this article, the relevant point is simpler. Both the equity record run and Bitcoin's stall near $65,000 are happening against a backdrop where the next real catalyst, Wednesday's CPI print, has not landed yet.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Fed raise rates in September 2026?
Current pricing leans against it. Polymarket puts the odds of a 25 basis-point hike at 36%, versus 63% for no change, both figures unchanged since Friday's weak payrolls report. That leans toward a pause rather than a certainty, and Wednesday's CPI print is the next data point that could shift it in either direction.
What time does the July CPI report come out on August 12, 2026?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the July Consumer Price Index at 8:30am ET on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. That is the standard release time the agency uses for every monthly CPI report.
What is core CPI and why does it matter more than headline inflation?
Core CPI strips out food and energy prices, which swing sharply for reasons unrelated to the broader economy. The Federal Reserve leans on core CPI because it reflects the underlying inflation trend policymakers are trying to control, rather than short-term commodity noise.
Why did July's jobs report move Fed rate-hike odds so much?
Payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, a contraction instead of the roughly 100,000 gain economists expected. A shrinking labor market is one of the clearest signals against tightening policy, and Polymarket's hike odds dropped from 56.5% to 36% within days of the release.
Bottom Line
Wednesday's CPI report does not have to show inflation cooling to keep September's hike off the table. It has to avoid confirming the rebound TD Securities already forecast, meaning a core reading that pushes meaningfully past the 2.4%-2.5% range or a headline print that breaks above 3.4% would change the picture fast. If the numbers land near consensus, the 36% odds that have held since Friday probably hold too. If core comes in hot and validates TD's 0.20% month-over-month call, expect the odds to climb back toward the mid-40s within hours, retracing days of repricing almost immediately. Either way, the Senate will not be in session to react to any of it until mid-September, which leaves crypto's regulatory backdrop frozen regardless of what Wednesday shows.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
