Main Takeaway: The Week Begins In The Red
The week started poorly as US equities fell 3%, the Euro dropped below $1, European energy prices skyrocketed, and Saudi Arabia mentioned oil output cuts. Moreover, the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at its lowest level in 30 years. So in recent months, the US has been artificially lowering gas prices just by releasing oil from its reserves. Altogether, the global macro economy is looking worse and worse by the day. Volatility is increasing as these news stories pile onto each other. For example, the VIX S&P 500 Volatility Index and US Bond Market Volatility are now on the rise.
The main takeaway is all these negative economic indicators have caused crypto to retest the critical $1 trillion market cap support level. But if the Fed signals another round of severe tightening, we’re likely to retest lows at or around the $800 billion market cap area. We previously warned that investors should be wary of fake breakouts and that the bottom may not be in. We’re likely to soon find out how this hypothesis will play out.
Key Stories: Euro Falls Below The Dollar
For the second time this year, the Euro has fallen below $1. This is happening because the economic situation in the European Union is weakening. For example, European energy prices are skyrocketing and inflation remains high. As the Dollar rises, the Euro will likely keep falling. Keep your eyes peeled on German and French economic policies in the weeks and months to come.
Investor Insight: Crypto Prices Will Only Improve With The Real Economy
Stocks and cryptos rallied from their lows in June, but now as the global economic situation turns bleak, the Dollar is bidding, bonds turning over, yields going higher, and global productivity contracting, we may again be due for more downside. For example, the SPX and cryptos have been nearly correlated for all of 2022, and when the US stocks decline, cryptos rarely hold up. Therefore, investors should practice safe risk management practices in the midst of a declining global economy. If and when things get better, we’ll see it in the real economy and markets.